Cognitive Processing Part 1: Hindsight Bias in Trauma
What is it?
Hindsight bias, a cognitive mechanism that discards inaccurate information and embraces correct information, can be an advantage in our memory. It can allow us to constantly update our knowledge, enhancing the accuracy of our inferences, despite the potential for bias. (6)
However, the effect of hindsight bias in trauma is significantly different. Individuals with PTSD often assume they could have exerted more control over traumatic events. This assumption is evident in a person's attempts to undo negative outcomes through their thinking. They may believe that there should have been ways to prevent the event. (2,3)
Hindsight bias, or the "knew it all along" phenomenon, can distort reality, impair decision-making, and hinder relationships, work, and healing from trauma and mental health issues. In the context of trauma, this can be particularly damaging. Some conceptual examples of what hindsight bias can sound like are:
"If I hadn't drank so much (or if I would have fought back), I would not have gotten sexually assaulted."
"If my commanding officer wouldn’t have ordered us to drive down that road, my army buddies would still be alive.”
"If I would have said something, this would have never happened.“
“If I would have turned left instead of right, I would have never gotten in that accident .”
“If I would have jumped in the water after him (or if I got there 2 minutes sooner), he would still be alive.”(1)
What does it do?
Why would someone who went through something really hard believe they had some control over the outcome? A possible answer is trauma survivors try to make sense of what happened to them. For instance, someone who faced sexual assault might think if they had just done something differently—like drank less, wore different clothing, weren’t so friendly, or even chose different friends—they could have avoided it. It may help them cope with the trauma, but it can also lead to harmful patterns. (1, 4, 5)
The problematic nature of hindsight bias in trauma is that, in the present, we possess complete (or nearly complete) information about the outcome of the situation. However, when making decisions, we operate with limited information and must rely on our best judgment based on the available data at that time. Overestimating the control one has over traumatic events is rooted in a desire for self-protection. It’s the brain doing just what it was designed to do. It can lead to feelings of isolation, self-blame, and distrust. Consequently, the tendency to isolate, distrust, or blame oneself not only hinders the healing process but may also exacerbate conditions such as PTSD (1, 4, 5).
What can I do?
Have you been through something traumatic? If you are noticing that this resonates with you, you are not alone. Sometimes it is difficult to know what to do with trauma or experiences that risked our safety. In part 2 of this blog, there will be a series of questions to help combat hindsight bias. Until then, try this exercise.
Keep in mind that some discomfort accompanies thinking about traumatic events, and it is wise to utilize human support or tools already at your disposal to practice self-compassion and relaxation.
While thinking about the hindsight bias you engage in due to a traumatic event, ask yourself, “How do I think I should have handled the situation?” “What options did I actually have at the time?”
Processing trauma and challenging hindsight bias can be a rocky road, but you do not have to do it alone. Learn more about how cognitive processing can help with healing trauma by making an appointment with a therapist today.
Resources
Resick, Patrica; Monson, Candice; Chard, Kathleen (2024) Cognitive Processing Therapy for PTSD, second edition. Guilford Press. New York, NY.
https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2829&context=theses
Pezzo, M. V. (2011). Hindsight bias: A primer for motivational researchers. Social and Personality Psychology Compass. 5, 665-678. doi:10.1111/j.1751- 9004.2011.00381.x
Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7, 411-426.
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